The Green Bay Packers’ playoff chances probably will come down to how they do against the Chicago Bears Sunday and in the teams’ re-match in Chicago in five weeks.

None of the three contenders for the NFC North Division title has grabbed a hold of the division lead because so far no one has a meaningful edge in division play. The 4-5 Packers and 5-4 Minnesota Vikings have split two games. The 5-4 Bears have beaten the Vikings in their one meeting. All three have battered winless Detroit at least once.

So the race probably will come down to the remaining head-to-head match ups, and the Packers and Bears are the only teams in the division that haven’t played yet. If the Bears win today, they’ll be 6-4 and will have taken a huge step toward winning the division crown. If the Packers win Sunday, the race stays wide open, and if they beat the Bears in the second-to-last game of the season, they’re a good bet to win the division title also. There’s no over-selling how important these games are.

“If you win these division games, it’s like winning two games normally because we go a game up and they go a game down,” said Brian Urlacher, the Bears’ middle linebacker, this week.

The talent among the three contenders appears to be especially close this season, at least according to two NFC scouts who study the division teams closely. The Press-Gazette this week consulted the two scouts to help rank the starters at each position in this division. When there were significant differences, this reporter made the call based on their arguments.

The Bears came out with the most top-ranked players (10) and the most overall points (86, with four points awarded for having the best player at a position, three for second, two for third and one for last). The Packers had six top-ranked players and the second-most total points (72). The Vikings had more firsts (eight) than the Packers but slightly fewer points (69).

It should hardly come as a surprise that Detroit was far behind in every measure. The Lions had only three firsts, and two of those were on special teams with kicker Jason Hanson and punter Nick Harris. They had the worst player at 16 of the 26 positions, and their 47 points were barely more than half the Vikings’.

Here’s the rankings at each position, followed by comments based on the scouts’ observations:

Quarterbacks

1. Kyle Orton, Bears

2. Aaron Rodgers, Packers

3. Gus Frerotte, Vikings

4. Dan Orlovsky, Lions

Comment: Rodgers is more talented and the better long-term prospect, but the more game-experienced Orton has been the more consistent of the two fourth-year pros. They have similar passing ratings (Rodgers 93.3 points, Orton 90.8) and have minimized turnovers (five and four turnovers, respectively). “(Orton) has come the farthest in his growth cycle,” one scout said. Both Frerotte (74.0 passer rating) and Orlovsky (76.7) are liabilities.

Running backs

1. Adrian Peterson, Vikings

2. Matt Forte, Bears

3. Ryan Grant, Packers

4. Kevin Smith, Lions

Comment: Peterson is the NFL’s leading rusher (1,015 yards) and probably has surpassed LaDainian Tomlinson as the league’s best back. “I don’t know who’s better,” one scout said. However, the rookie Forte is the NFL’s eighth-ranked rusher (713 yards, 3.8 yards per carry) and a good receiver out of the backfield (a team-leading 37 receptions). He’s not in Peterson’s class but is one of the league’s promising young backs.

Fullbacks

1. Jason McKie, Bears

2. Korey Hall, Packers

3. Jerome Felton, Lions

4. Jeff Dugan, Vikings

Comment: In a position that’s getting closer to extinction, McKie is the only one who touches the ball occasionally (11 rushes, nine receptions). Hall has made a solid transition from college linebacker to NFL blocking back.

Left tackles

1. Bryant McKinnie, Vikings

2. Chad Clifton, Packers

3. John St. Clair, Bears

4. Jeff Backus, Lions

Comment: Clifton was the best of this group last season, but he’s never been a good run blocker, has slipped some in pass protection this season and had one really bad game, last week at Minnesota. McKinnie is a huge man (6-8, 335) who’s a strong drive blocker and OK pass protector. St. Clair has been a serviceable replacement in Chicago for John Tait, who moved to right tackle.

Left guards

1. Steve Hutchinson, Vikings

2. Josh Beekman, Bears

3. Daryn Colledge, Packers

4. Edwin Mulitalo, Lions

Comment: Hutchinson clearly is the class of this group though he’s probably not an elite guard. There’s little to separate Beekman, second-year pro, and Colledge, a third-year pro. Colledge has gone from the most inconsistent of the Packers’ starting linemen last season to their most consistent this year.

Centers

1. Olin Kreutz, Bears

2. Matt Birk, Vikings

3. Scott Wells, Packers

4. Dominic Raiola, Lions

Comment: Kreutz (31) and Birk (32) are formerly elite players who have begun to decline because of age. Wells is slightly undersized (295 pounds) and his body is starting to get beaten up as a fifth-year pro – he had a torso injury that sidelined him in training camp and for the first three games this season. “Functional, not great,” one scout said of Wells. “A lot better with the other quarterback.” Raiola had a 120-game starting streak end last week because of a broken hand.

Right guards

1. Robert Garza, Bears

2. Anthony Herrera, Vikings

3. Jason Spitz, Packers

4. Stephen Peterman, Lions

Comment: Garza is a good, solid player who goes unnoticed but seems to block everybody he faces. Herrera is a fifth-year pro coming into his own. Spitz might have been the Packers’ most consistent lineman last year but has been surprisingly up and down in this, his third year as a starter. It’s looking more and more like his best position is center.

Right tackles

1. John Tait, Bears

2. Mark Tauscher, Packers

3. Gosder Cherilus, Lions

4. Ryan Cook, Vikings

Comment: Tait moved from left tackle to right tackle this season and is now at his best position. Tauscher hasn’t played to the level of last year, when he was by far the best right tackle in the division, but at age 31 he still should have several good years left in him. “I don’t think the (Packers’) drop-off is in the tackle,” one scout said. “They’re just not used to (pass) protecting so long.” Cherilus, a first-round draft pick this year, only recently became a starter and is one of the Lions’ few promising players.

No. 1 wide receivers

1. Greg Jennings, Packers

2. Calvin Johnson, Lions

3. Bernard Berrien, Vikings

4. Brandon Lloyd, Bears

Comment: Jennings has become a top-10 receiver in the NFL, and Johnson, a second-year pro, is closing fast because of his size (6-5, 239) and speed. “If Johnson had a quarterback and good team he’d be No. 1,” one scout said. “But Jennings is strong, fast, tough, just a good playmaker.” Lloyd, who has only 15 catches, has been hurt much of the season and is in coach Lovie Smith’s doghouse. But the Bears have a startlingly weak receiving corps.

No. 2 wide receivers

1. Donald Driver, Packers

2. Shaun McDonald, Lions

3. Devin Hester, Bears

4. Bobby Wade, Vikings

Comment: The Packers have one of the best receiver corps in the NFL and by far the best in the division. Driver has shown little or no decline at age 33. Hester is a talent but after coming to the NFL as a return man/cornerback still is learning the position.

No. 3 wide receivers

1. Mike Furrey, Lions

2. Jordy Nelson, Packers

3. Rashied Davis, Bears

4. Sidney Rice, Vikings

Comment: The rookie Nelson and second-year pro Rice are ascending players who could become good No. 2 receivers in the league, whereas Furrey and Davis are maxed out.

Tight ends

1. Greg Olsen, Bears

2. Visanthe Shiancoe, Vikings

3. Donald Lee, Packers

4. Michael Gaines, Lions

Comment: Olsen, a second-year pro, is Orton’s best weapon in the passing game and one of the more promising young tight ends in the league. “Tremendous athlete, creates a lot of headaches,” one of the scouts said. “He’s still a ways from those (elite tight ends) but he’s coming.” Lee has been a forgotten man in the Packers’ offense (23 catches, 7.3-yard average), perhaps in part because of the team’s quality depth at receiver.

Left defensive ends

1. Aaron Kampman, Packers

2. Adewale Ogunleye, Bears

3. Ray Edwards, Vikings

4. Jared DeVries, Lions

Comment: Kampman hasn’t been quite as productive (6 ½ sacks in nine games) or good all-around as last season but still is among the best players at his position in the league. Ogunleye at age 31 isn’t the pass rusher he was (2 ½ sacks so far) but still gets some pressure on the quarterback.

Nose tackles

1. Pat Williams, Vikings

2. Ryan Pickett, Packers

3. Dusty Dvoracek, Bears

4. Chuck Darby, Lions

Comment: The 35-year-old Williams remains a dominant player whose impossible to move. Pickett, 28, hasn’t played as well as last year, when he was an unsung hero for the Packers. He’s been slowed by knee and triceps injuries but hasn’t missed a game. Darby’s been a free-agent disappointment for the Lions.

Defensive tackles

1. Kevin Williams, Vikings

2. Tommie Harris, Bears

3. Johnny Jolly, Packers

4. Cory Redding, Lions

Comment: One of the best positions in the division. Williams is having one of his best seasons and might be the top defensive tackle in the game other than Tennessee’s Albert Haynesworth. Harris has had some disciplinary run-ins with coach Lovie Smith and hasn’t been as consistently great as in the past, though he still can be a disruptive force. Jolly is playing better than early in the season but not to the level before he got hurt last year. Redding is good, too, but it’s a sign of the Lions’ serious shortcomings that he’s one of their two best players on defense.

Right defensive ends

1. Jared Allen, Vikings

2. Alex Brown, Bears

3. Dewayne White, Lions

4. Michael Montgomery, Packers

Comment: Allen is one of the premier outside rushers in the league and is tied for seventh in the NFL in sacks (8 ½), though he came at a steep price that included first- and third-round draft picks. Brown looks better on film rushing the passer than his production (three sacks) suggests. The Packers haven’t been able to replace right end Cullen Jenkins, whose season ended the final week of September because of a torn pectoral muscle.

Middle linebackers

1. Brian Urlacher, Bears

2. Nick Barnett, Packers

3. Paris Lenon, Lions

4. Napoleon Harris, Vikings

Comment: Urlacher, 30, isn’t as explosive or dominant as he was in his prime, but he’s gotten smarter and remains a quality player. Barnett’s play had slipped from last year before his season ended last week because of a torn ACL. Minnesota’s E.J. Henderson would have been ranked No. 2 if not for his season-ending toe injury in early October.

Weak-side linebackers

1. Lance Briggs, Bears

2. Chad Greenway, Vikings

3. Ernie Sims, Lions

4. A.J. Hawk, Packers

Comment: Briggs has surpassed Urlacher as the Bears’ best linebacker. It was a close call for second between Greenway and Sims, both third-year pros. Greenway is an ascending player characterized by one scout as a beast, whereas the other said that while Greenway is fast improving, he also benefits from the Vikings’ dominant defensive-tackle duo keeping linemen off him. Sims is explosive, but at 225 pounds has trouble shedding blockers when they get on him. Hawk, also a third-year pro, has had a disappointing season, though it’s unclear whether his chest and groin injuries have been the major reason for the slide in his play.

Strong-side linebackers

1. Ben Lieber, Vikings

2. Hunter Hillenmeyer, Bears

3. Brady Poppinga, Packers

4. Ryan Niece, Lions

Comment: Lieber was a solid free-agent signing for the Vikings and put a hellacious hit on Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers last week. Hillenmeyer has been a sound tackler in Chicago’s run defense but is limited in pass coverage. Poppinga brings some juice to the Packers’ run defense and has improved in coverage.

Left cornerbacks

1. Charles Woodson, Packers

2. Antoine Winfield, Vikings

3. Charles Tillman, Bears

4. Brian Kelly, Lions

Comment: Woodson is playing better than ever at age 31, is tied with teammate Nick Collins for the NFL lead in interceptions (five) and is the team’s best defensive player. “They can’t win without him,” one of the scouts said. “Big-time player.” Winfield is small(5-9, 180) but extremely tough. Tillman has his ups and downs in coverage but is among the best in the league at stripping the ball right after the catch.

Right cornerbacks

1. Al Harris, Packers

2. Leigh Bodden, Lions

3. Nathan Vasher, Bears

4. Cedric Griffin, Vikings

Comment: Harris has been solid since returning from a torn spleen that sidelined him for four games. Vasher’s play has slipped, and the Bears appear ready to replace him in their starting lineup this week with Corey Graham.

Free safety

1. Nick Collins, Packers

2. Mike Brown, Bears

3. Madieu Williams, Vikings

4. Daniel Bullocks, Lions

Comment: Collins finally has blossomed in his fourth year and should be headed for the Pro Bowl. Brown, a ninth-year pro, has lost speed and explosiveness because of a long string of injuries, though he’s still tough and a leader. Williams probably would be higher on the list if he’d been available much this season, but he missed seven games because of a neck injury and now has a shoulder injury.

Strong safety

1. Darren Sharper, Vikings

2. Kevin Payne, Bears

3. Atari Bigby, Packers

4. Dwight Smith, Lions

Comment: Sharper still is playing good football in his 12th NFL season because he’s adjusted to a loss of speed and is playing smarter and more disciplined than earlier in his career. Bigby was on the rise early in the season but then missed five games with a pulled hamstring and hasn’t been the same since returning.

Nickel back

1. Corey Graham, Bears

2. Tramon Williams, Packers

3. Travis Fisher, Lions

4. Charles Gordon, Vikings

Comment: Graham appears likely to replace Vasher in the Bears’ starting lineup this week. Williams filled in seamlessly when Harris was out and looks like a future starter for the Packers. Gordon dislocated his ankle last week against the Packers and is out for the year.

Kickers

1. Jason Hanson, Lions

2. Ryan Longwell, Vikings

3. Robbie Gould, Bears

4. Mason Crosby, Packers

Comment: This an excellent group and nearly impossible to separate. The 38-year-old Hanson is 5-for-5 on field goals from 50 yards or more this season, and has only one miss overall. Longwell is 17-for-21 on field goals, 3-for-3 from 50 yards or more. Gould is 15-for-18 but lacks the leg strength of the others. Crosby missed a 52-year to win the game at Minnesota last week, but the second-year pro appears to be one of the most talented young kickers in the game.

Punters

1. Nick Harris, Lions

2. Brad Maynard, Bears

3. Chris Kluwe, Vikings

4. Derrick Frost, Packers

Comment: Harris has the best net in the division (38.8 yards), and Maynard is one of the best directional punters in the game. Kluwe has a big leg (47.5-yard gross) but opponents have returned four of his punts for touchdowns and are averaging 18.1-yards a return. Frost has been a major disappointment (43.2-yard gross, 37.3-yard net) since the Packers signed him after final cuts.

Returners

1. Devin Hester, Bears

2. Will Blackmon, Packers

3. Mike Furrey, Lions

4. Aundrae Allison, Vikings

Comment: Hester is the most explosive return man in the game though he surprisingly has none for a touchdown this season. Blackmon (two touchdowns) has given the Packers an excellent return game as well and ranks in the league’s upper tier. Detroit and Minnesota have no pop.