Mock debate is over: Trevor Lawrence is consensus first pick to Jags; opinions differ after that

The mocks are unanimous on the eve of the NFL Draft. 

Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence will be selected by the Jaguars with the first overall selection on Thursday in Cleveland. 

It’s the most open-and-shut case of a player being the top overall pick since Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck was taken by Indianapolis in 2012. 

Trevor Lawrence, then who else? Here's the Times-Union's Jaguars seven-round mock NFL Draft

Gene Frenette:Some recommendations for Jaguars NFL Draft picks after Trevor Lawrence

ESPN’s Mel Kiper has graded Lawrence as the fourth-highest quarterback prospect behind only John Elway, Peyton Manning and Luck. 

“He is a once-in-a-decade type of quarterback prospect,” said ESPN’s Todd McShay. 

“Urban Meyer selects his franchise quarterback for years to come,” said former NFL general manager Charley Casserly in his mock draft for nfl.com. 

And Ryan Wilson of cbssports.com said in predicting the Jags to take Lawrence: “There are few certainties in life. This is one of them.” 

So, after Trevor Lawrence...

But the mock drafts by the national media begin to diverge when it comes to the Jaguars' second first-round pick, at No. 25, and the two second-round spots, Nos. 33 and 45. 

In a Times-Union survey of 18 mock drafts, 13 differ when it comes to the first-round choice after Lawrence. And the 13 predictions are all over the lot on defense with every position group represented among seven defensive players. 

The mock drafts came from national publications such as the USA Today, Sports Illustrated and The Sporting News; and web sites ESPN, nfl.com, cbssports.com, The Athletic and Pro Football Focus. 

In some of the cases, such as ESPN, nfl.com and cbssports.com, multiple mock drafters from the same outlets were part of the mix. 

The forecasters who think the Jaguars will take an offensive player with the second first-round pick are split between receivers (two wide receivers and a tight end) and three offensive tackles. 

Ten mock drafts analyzed that went into the second round also vary widely with seven players tabbed with the first second-round choice and seven with the second choice in that round. 

Trevon Moehrig next in line for Jags

The plurality of mockers think that Texas Christian safety Trevon Moehrig will wind up with the Jaguars, but some think general manager Trent Baalke and Meyer won’t wait until the second round to snag the big-play artist who was the Jim Thorpe Award winner last season as the nation’s best defensive back. 

Five of the mock drafts have Moehrig going to the Jags in the first round, with only Alabama defensive tackle Christian Barmore getting more than one vote (two) for that spot. 

Rhett Lewis of nfl.com, like many observers, thinks Moehrig’s ability to play multiple secondary positions, depending on the formation, makes him a prospect the Jaguars should jump on. 

“Ultimately, Moehrig's ability to play at a high level in a variety of situations makes him a real value in Jacksonville's secondary,” Lewis wrote. “He's the top safety in this class, excels playing deep and up in the box for run support. I think he could actually thrive as a top-shelf slot corner, as well.” 

Jevon Holland, Christian Barmore, Pat Freiermuth all strong choices

But former Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew, an nfl.com contributor, likes another safety at the 25th spot for the same reasons: Jevon Holland of Oregon. 

Jones-Drew noted that he does have a personal stake in tabbing Holland: he coached him at KT Prep, a national 7-on-7 academy. 

“I know just how valuable he can be for the Jaguars' secondary as a versatile player,” Jones-Drew wrote. “He can play safety, cornerback, nickel or weak-side linebacker, and has the goods to cover slot receivers and tight ends. He'll immediately boost any unit. 

Pete Prisco of cbssports.com is in the Barmore camp. 

“They could opt for speed in this spot at receiver, but this is a deep draft in that area,” he wrote. “So why not take the best defensive down player in the class? He [Barmore] just needs to be more consistent.” 

Three believe that Moehrig will be available with the first pick in the second round and he will land with the Jaguars there. No other player got more than one vote. 

The next-most popular pick the mock drafts have for the Jags is Penn State tight end Pat Freiermuth. One mock had him going in the first round, another with the 33rd pick in the second round and three with the 45th selection in the second round. 

He also was the only player to be mocked to the Jags at the 45th pick more than once. 

Casserly was the one mock drafter who thinks the Jags shouldn’t wait past the 25th pick to take Freiermuth, citing the fact that the team did not address a pass-catching tight end in free agency. 

In addition to Freiermuth, tight ends Brevin Jordan of Miami and Hunter Long of Boston College were mocked to the Jags. Wide receivers predicted to see 904 appear on their cell phones on draft night include Florida's Kadarius Toney, Purdue's Rondale Moore and Louisville's Chatarius Atwell.

Four mock drafters think the Jaguars should go offensive tackle with the 25th pick in the first round or either pick in the second round, but again they offer up four names: Alijah Vera-Tucker of USC, Teven Jenkins of Oklahoma State, Samuel Cosmi of Texas and Walker Little of Stanford.

Although the Jags seem set at cornerback, two mock drafters offered up three players at that position, Caleb Farley of Virginia Tech, Elijah Molden of Washington and Eric Stokes of Georgia.

In addition to Barmore, two mock drafters like Washington's Levi Onwuzurike.

Jaguars in NFL mock drafts 

The Times-Union compiled the results of 18 mock drafts by national media and web sites, 10 of which also had mock drafts of the second round. The media outlets used are ESPN, CBSsports.com, nfl.com, USA Today, Sports Illustrated, Pro Football Focus, The Sporting News and The Athletic. Some websites had multiple contributors doing mock drafts. Here are the results, with the number of mock drafters picking them at those spots: 

First round, first selection 

QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson 18. 

First round, 25th selection 

S Trevon Moehrig, TCU 5; DT Christian Barmore, Alabama 2; TE Pat Freiermuth, Penn State; CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech; S Jevon Holland, Oregon; OT Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State; OT Walker Little, Stanford; WR Rondale Moore, Purdue; OLB Azeez Ojulari, Georgia; DE Jayson Oweh, Penn State; DE Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan; WR Kadarius Toney, Florida; OT Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC, 1 each. 

Second round, 33rd selection 

Moehrig 3; Freiermuth, Toney, WR Chatarius Atwell, Louisville; OT Samuel Cosmi, Texas; CB Elijah Molden, Washington; DT Levi Onwuzurike, Washington, 1 each. 

Second round, 45th selection 

Freiermuth 3; Onwuzurike; S Richie Grant, UCF; TE Brevin Jordan, Miami; TE Hunter Long, Boston College; CB Eric Stokes, Georgia; RB Javonte Williams, North Carolina, 1 each. 

By position 

Here are the players the mock drafters have predicted for the Jaguars with their four picks in the first two rounds, by position: 

Offense: Quarterback 18, tight end 7, tackle 4, wide receiver 4, running back 1. 

Defense: Safety 10, tackle 4, defensive end/outside linebacker 4, cornerback 3.