NFC Championship preview, predictions: Packers vs. Falcons
What: Green Bay Packers (12-6) vs. Atlanta Falcons (12-5) in the NFC Championship Game.
When: 2:05 p.m. CST Sunday.
Where: Georgia Dome.
Television: Fox.
Radio: AM-620 in Milwaukee, AM-1360 in Green Bay; Packers Radio Network.
Series: Packers lead, 17-14.
Line: Falcons by 5.
Surface: FieldTurf.
Coaches: Green Bay’s Mike McCarthy (124-68-1) vs. Atlanta’s Dan Quinn (20-13).
Five Things to Watch
COUSINS COLLIDE: Clay Matthews probably will spend much of his time working against LT Jake Matthews, his younger cousin. RT Ryan Schraeder is expected to see more of Julius Peppers and Nick Perry. “Jake can handle speed,” one personnel man said. “He’s got lateral range. But anchor and lack of length (33 7/8-inch arms), he’ll have struggles with power. Schraeder will have his problems against speed. I’d put Matthews on Schraeder. Schraeder is a big guy with punch but he doesn’t have the feet to recover.” Added an assistant coach for a Falcons’ opponent: “I’m sure they’re happy to have (Jake) Matthews. But he definitely hasn’t elevated his game to one of the better tackles in the league. He’s in the middle among (left tackles).”
THEY MEET AGAIN: This will be the sixth meeting between the starting quarterbacks. Matt Ryan won the first two before Aaron Rodgers won the last four. “There’s no time with Ryan where you go, ‘Oh my God,’” said one scout. “Good throws? Yes. Delivers it quick? Yes. But everything’s kind of self-made. With Rodgers it’s, ‘Look at this.’ Ryan is a quick processor. They do a lot of different things. Keep you off balance. Ryan is plenty tough but he’s just not a good athlete. He delivers catchable balls. He has a little bit of a windup in his release. Ryan has to be set. He doesn’t make off-balance throws. Rodgers is truly special at those off-balance throws. Just with a flick. Where Ryan makes more programmed throws.”
DEEP HALF: The Falcons are stronger at safety than cornerback with SS Keanu Neal and FS Ricardo Allen. “Neal is their Kam Chancellor,” one scout said. “He’s their third best player on defense.” Neal is better playing near the line. “He’s definitely an enforcer,” another scout said. “Really has some snap on contact. He can really close and run. Still, in man coverage, he has some issues. He doesn’t look comfortable and is a little bit slow to react. He needs to be rolled up. … Allen is a solid player. Instinctive, tough. But at the moment of truth he’s just not a big guy. He may get big-boy’d. He is going to be in position and he has ball skills.”
FAST FLOW: Hoping to increase team speed on defense, the Falcons in April drafted inside linebackers Deion Jones (4.45) in the second round and De’Vondre Campbell (4.56) in the fourth. “Jones is their second-best player on defense behind (Vic) Beasley,” one scout said. “He’s a very good player. Explosive. Can run. Can really run. He covers what could be a big play due to his speed and athleticism.” Another personnel man said Campbell has gradually elevated his game. “He’ll attack downhill,” he said. “He’s improved his awareness from early (in the season). He can run and hit. Still needs work reading keys but it’s not as obvious or as blatant now.”
MAIN MAN: Undersized DE Vic Beasley didn’t have much success in the first game against the Packers but improved and finished his second season with a league-leading 15½ sacks. “He’s a high-effort guy, one,” said an offensive assistant coach for a recent Falcons’ opponent. “Two, he’s got some explosiveness to him. When he gets on an edge he can accelerate to get by you. That’s probably the hardest thing for tackles to deal with. A guy that can run at you, bull rush you a little bit and all of a sudden turn speed to power. Some guys don’t transition well. He transitions pretty well. He’s found his zone, the area where he’s most comfortable. When you find that, you become a good player.”
Views of the Game
BOB McGINN
The spread (Green Bay +5) is wacky. The Packers should have a better chance to pressure Matt Ryan than the Falcons have to pressure Aaron Rodgers. Home-field advantage? Should be because it’s the last game in the building. But the dome has never really been loved, and Falcons fans usually don’t even bother to walk in until the first quarter is half over.
TOM SILVERSTEIN
There's every reason to pick the Falcons and only one to take the Packers: Aaron Rodgers. It's too much to ask them to overcome the loss of Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams, let alone Geronimo Allison, all of whom might not play. The crowd will be against them. Matt Ryan is playing at an extremely high level. But Rodgers is playing on another plane and it might just be enough for an upset. Packers 41, Falcons 37
MICHAEL COHEN
Perhaps it was meant to be. Packers 38, Falcons 34
PETE DOUGHERTY
The X factor is Julio Jones’ foot injury – the Falcons receiver will be the third-most important player on the field. The guess here is his foot won’t hold up for 60 minutes – it didn’t last week – and that Matt Ryan won’t quite be able to keep up with Aaron Rodgers on the scoreboard. Packers 38, Falcons 35
RYAN WOOD
There were 65 points scored when these two teams played each other in October. That might look like a defensive slugfest compared to what breaks out Sunday. Against what has been the two hottest offenses in the NFL, neither defense will get stops. This one might come down to who has the ball last, much like Sunday’s game in Dallas. Ultimately, Aaron Rodgers is playing too well to let his team lose. Packers 41, Falcons 35