Here's how Gutekunst can move into the 3rd round
Tom Silverstein
GREEN BAY – After pulling off two of them Thursday, Green Bay Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst has a slightly different trade menu in front of him.
After dealing back from No. 14 to No. 27 and then up to No. 18, Gutekunst has 11 picks left. However, he has none in the third round – he dealt No. 76 to Seattle to move up – and just one in the sixth – he dealt No. 186 in that same trade.
At the same time, he picked up a fifth-round pick from New Orleans (No. 147) – in the trade down -- and a seventh from Seattle (No. 248) in the trade up.
So, this is what the Packers’ list of choices looks like with the draft trade value total next to each pick:
No. 45 (2nd round) – 450 points
No. 101 (4th round) – 96 points
No. 133 (4th round) – 39 points
No. 138 (5th round) – 36.5 points
No. 147 (5th round) – 32.2 points
No. 172 (5th round) – 22.2 points
No. 174 (5th round) – 21.4 points
No. 207 (6th round) – 8.2 points
No. 232 (7th round) – 1 point
No. 239 (7th round) – 1 point
No. 248 (7th round) – 1 point
Gutekunst’s charge Friday night is to get back into the third round. There are basically two ways to do it.
The first is to move down in the second round and try to pick up a third in return. Let’s look at the possibilities.
Second-round picks below where the Packers select begin at 440 points (No. 46) and end at 274 points (No. 64). Third-round picks range from 265 points (No. 65) to 100 points (No. 100).
So, to pick up a third-round pick, Gutekunst basically needs to recoup at least 100 points and up to 265 points from his trade down in the second round.
For arguments sake, let’s say Gutekunst needs 150 points difference between the second-round pick he has now and the pick he would receive in a trade down.
His choices in the second-round would be:
No. 60 – Pittsburgh – 300 points
No. 61 – Jacksonville – 292 points
No. 62 – Minnesota – 284 points
No. 63 – New England – 276 points
No. 64 – Cleveland – 270 points
Pittsburgh, for example, could make the deal because it has a third-round selection (No. 92) worth 132 points. The Packers’ second-round pick is worth 450, so if Pittsburgh offered its second (No. 60), third (No. 92) and a fifth (No. 165, 25 points), that would equal 457 points.
The Packers could also choose to move down to say, No. 54 (360 points), get Kansas City’s third (No. 86, 160 points), but they’d have to send their second, a fourth (No. 133, 39 points) and a fifth (No. 147, 32.2 points) in return.
Another way would be to try to package as many picks as possible below the third round to meet the asking price.
Let’s say it’s Atlanta at No. 90. That’s worth 140 points.
The Packers could send a fourth (No. 101, 96 points) and their two picks at the end of the fifth (Nos. 172 and 174, worth a total of 43.6 points). They could probably get even higher than No. 90 if they use their picks at the top of the fourth and fifth rounds as part of the compensation.
The big question is whether anybody really wants to move out of the third.
Someone like New England who doesn’t have fourth- or fifth-round selections might be interested. Houston has three third-round picks, but no second-round pick and might be willing to deal into the second (they have the fourth pick in the third, which might be good enough for Gutekunst).
Gutekunst should have some options. We’ll soon find out whether his willing and dealing continues.