What should Packers expect as compensation from Jets in a trade for Aaron Rodgers? 4 NFL personnel executives offer their thoughts.

Tom Silverstein
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
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GREEN BAY – The Green Bay Packers and New York Jets have yet to settle on trade compensation for quarterback Aaron Rodgers and it’s anyone’s guess when they will reach an agreement.

The Packers can hold onto Rodgers until September without having to pay his $58.3 million option bonus, but in order for them to get any draft picks this year, they’re going to have to make a deal before the draft the final weekend of April.

The Jets’ only deadline is how soon they want to get Rodgers in their building to start working with him and how badly they feel they need to appease their fans after Rodgers said his intention was to play in New York.

Should the Packers get the Jets’ first-round pick, No. 13 overall? Are they in a position to demand multiple first-round picks? Or should they get what they can for Rodgers and just move on so they can get his massive contract off their books?

More:Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has agreed to be traded to the New York Jets. What's next?

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Either Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst and Jets general manager Joe Douglas did not have a firm trade agreement in place when the Jets went to talk to Rodgers about joining them or they did, and one of the two decided to move the goal posts and change the terms of the deal.

Because teams couldn’t execute trades until 3 p.m. Wednesday, any agreement they might have had was not official.

If Aaron Rodgers leaves the Packers for the Jets, what is his trade value?

So, what is Rodgers’ trade value?

We asked four current personnel executives from four different NFL teams what they thought the compensation should be for Rodgers. We agreed not to use their names because they are not authorized to talk about personnel matters of players not on their team.

Here are their thoughts:

'The Jets need to do something to make him (Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst) want to move faster'

Personnel director No. 1: “My initial thought was a second- or third-round pick in 2023 with a 2024 pick tied to whether or not Aaron decides to play a second season. However, the Packers have all the cards now because it appears they didn’t have a deal agreed to before the Jets flew to California to meet with Aaron. And now if the Jets don’t finish the deal, well, you can imagine what the New York press will do. So, I’m guessing Brian knows this and the price has gone up to maybe a first this year and another pick as well because really he has all the leverage. And he’s not inclined to really trade him before June 1 anyways, so the Jets need to do something to make him want to move faster. Of course, Aaron could just start showing up to Lambeau like Brett (Favre) did to make it awkward and move things along, which I’m sure he’d do if needed. It will be fascinating to see what happens. It’s a pretty unprecedented deal really other than you know, when the Packers traded Brett to the Jets.”

'If I’m the Packers, I’d want that first and some more ... this whole ordeal and situation is nuts'

Personnel director No. 2: “I’ve been wondering what the compensation package will be myself. If I’m the Packers, I’d want that first and some more, but I really don’t think the Packers can get it without paying down Rodgers’ salary. I heard initially the Packers were using the (Russell) Wilson trade as rough parameters, which kind of makes sense, and then bump it down some for age and contract. So, assuming they aren’t going to pay down that salary, next year’s first or this year’s second, and then (receiver) Elijah Moore and a tight end and an edge player. Either way, this whole ordeal and situation is nuts. Couldn’t imagine being in one of those front offices.”

'It seems like Green Bay has the leverage now. Jets really have no other choice'

Personnel director No. 3: “I mean Rodgers did them no favors - If I'm GB I'm trying to get a one and maybe a pick in '24 that can move up based on how they do as a team this year. Maybe it’s a two this year and a pick that can move up to a one next year based on if they make the playoffs. It's a unique situation for sure. It seems like Green Bay has the leverage now. Jets really have no other choice.”

'It all comes down to picks and money'

Personnel director No. 4: “I think it all comes down to picks and money. If no money is exchanged (Packers paying part of the $58.3 million), it’s a third-round pick. For a certain level of money exchanged, it’s a second. There’s too much money involved in this deal for an exchange of a first. I haven’t really thought about players, picks and money (being traded). But usually when big money is involved it’s equated to money (the Packers would be willing to pay) and draft picks.”

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