If Brian Gutekunst wants to trade up in the first round, here's a chart that shows what Packers would have to give up
Tom SilversteinGREEN BAY – If Green Bay Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst wants to chase a player he can’t get with the 13th pick in the first round, he has more than enough capital to move up the board after acquiring an extra second-round pick in the Aaron Rodgers trade.
In addition to the 13th pick, which they obtained in the trade, the Packers have No. 42 and No. 45 overall, both in the second round.
NFL teams can value picks differently, whether they follow the old Jimmy Johnson draft trade value chart, the more modern Rich Hill trade value chart or one they have developed on their own. But the differences aren’t considerable, so in calculating what it would take for the Packers to move up to a top-10 position, we’ll use the Rich Hill chart.
Each pick in the draft has a numerical value and the No. 13 pick comes in at 336 points.
Here are the values of the picks that come before that.
- No. 1 (Carolina) – 1,000
- No. 2 (Houston) – 717
- No. 3 (Arizona) – 514
- No. 4 (Indianapolis) – 491
- No. 5 (Seattle) – 468
- No. 6 (Detroit) – 446
- No. 7 (Las Vegas) – 426
- No. 8 (Atlanta) – 406
- No. 9 (Chicago) – 387
- No. 10 (Philadelphia) – 369
So, with their two second-round draft picks as their premium capital, the Packers can get far up the order if they want.
The No. 42 pick is worth 142 points and the No. 45 is worth 131.
If the Packers wanted to use their first and two seconds to move up, they could offer 609 points in pick value, which could easily get them to the No. 3 pick.
Who would the Packers be chasing at No. 3?
More than likely, it would be a pair of edge rushers, either Alabama’s Will Anderson or Texas Tech’s Tyree Wilson. The two are considered safe picks who could be impact pass rushers for years to come.
The Packers could be fighting a team that wants one of the top quarterbacks if it wants to get up into the top 5, so the price might be higher than what the chart suggests. Considering Gutekunst wouldn’t have another pick until the third round, it’s unlikely he would be willing to offer anything more than his first and two seconds.
In addition, four other teams – Seattle, Pittsburgh, Chicago and Detroit – also have two second-round picks, so there could be competition when it comes to trading for a top pick.
Let’s say Gutekunst is willing to give up only one of his second-round picks to move up.
Perhaps he thinks Texas running back Bijan Robinson or Illinois cornerback Devon Witherspoon are going to be game changers.
Based on the value chart, the Packers’ No. 13 and No. 42 picks are worth a total of 478 points.
Conceivably, Gutekunst could trade with his former Packers colleague John Schneider to acquire the No. 5 pick, which is worth 468 points. He would be able to jump NFC North rival Detroit to nab either Robinson or Witherspoon, both of whom could be targets for the Lions.
If Gutekunst is willing to give up only the second of his second-round picks, he could generate 467 points , which might also get him the Seahawks pick or maybe the Lions pick if the player they covet is gone when their pick comes up at No. 6.
There are other options if Gutekunst wants to part with only a third- or fourth-round pick.
His third is worth 59 points, which means with his first, he could get to Chicago’s No. 9. Or he could throw in a fifth with the third and try to get No. 8 from the Falcons.
Having that extra No. 2 allows for a lot of upward movement, but it also gives Gutekunst some options if he wants to move down in the first round and then move back later.
Moving down isn’t necessarily going to net Gutekunst a lot unless he’s willing to move well down in the first round.
Pittsburgh, for instance, could offer a third and ask for a fifth in return if it wanted to get from 17th to 13th.
On the other hand, the New York Giants (No. 25), for example, would have to throw in their second-round pick (No. 57, 96 points) and fifth-round pick (No. 160, 10 points) to get to No. 13. The Philadelphia Eagles (No. 30) would have to throw in their second (No. 62, 84 points) and their third (No. 94, 41 points).
Given that this draft’s strength is its depth and not its top-end talent, Gutekunst is going to value his two second-round picks highly. Staying at 13 just might be good enough for him to get a player with a solid first-round grade on his board and build further with the two second-rounders.
But there’s no question he has options.